‘Can we avert a global 3.1C rise?’ Pre-COP29 discussion at CISL gauges options

The world could be on track for a catastrophic temperature rise of up to 3.1C.

That was one of the warnings as the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL) held two events looking at key topics for this year’s COP climate summits.

The 2024 United Nations Biodiversity Conference of the Parties (COP16) is taking place in Columbia until Friday (1 November), while the 29th Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP29), the World Climate Summit, takes place in Baku, Azerbaijan, on 11-22 November.

CISL’s COP16 preview at the start of the month considered the purpose of COP16 – colloquially known as the ‘Nature COP’ because it focuses on protecting and restoring biodiversity – and “what the private sector is already doing on nature and what is needed next”. This follows the recognition that biodiversity, climate and the global economy are interconnected.

Dr Nina Seega, director of the Centre for Sustainable Finance, convened by CISL, said: "The question of financing nature restoration and conservation is the deciding issue for the success of the COP16. The positive that we are seeing at COP16 is that finance and business are here and they are keen to engage in the conversation to ensure that an ambitious and enabling framework is set up.”

Both this and the COP29 event took place at CISL’s Entopia Building base in Cambridge, and both panel discussions were moderated by CISL’s interim CEO Lindsay Hooper, who stepped into the role at the University of Cambridge-led institution in January this year.

The COP29 preview provided participants with context about the location – Baku is in the South Caucasus and Central Asia region – the COP process, and the intersection of the two. The signs are ominous. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP), in its 2024 Emissions Gap report, warned the world was currently on track for temperature rises of 2.6C to 3.1C, depending on how much of the currently promised climate action is delivered.

Responding to the report, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres said the world was “teetering on a planetary tightrope”.

“Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster – with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” he said.

Countries had agreed to limit temperature rises to “well below” 2C and pursue efforts to curb them to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels at the Paris climate talks in 2015.

But the failure to adhere to the goals in that 2015 COP session – 2023 was the warmest year on record since global records began in 1850 – has resulted in a challenging environment for this year’s talks, which includes many rounds of negotiations on topics including carbon credits, investment in climate defences, and loss and damage formulae to already-affected regions in the global South.

Steve Davison, deputy director of the University of Cambridge’s Cambridge Zero and a panellist for CISL’s COP29 discussion, said: “The climate crisis is a whole-of-society challenge that requires action not just from governments but all sections of the non-state-actor community, from businesses to cities to universities.

“The latest UNEP Emissions Gap Report says that a continuation of current policies will lead to a catastrophic temperature rise of up to 3.1C. COP29 is an opportunity to move the dial on climate action, but the scale and complexity of COP can make it difficult to navigate.

“This panel discussion was an opportunity to examine and discuss some of the key issues from a variety of perspectives, bringing to bear a broad range of knowledge and expertise. In the process I’m hopeful that we have helped those travelling to Baku best identify where they might direct their efforts to mobilise meaningful action.”

In a year of increasing weather events, including fires, hurricanes and flooding, CISL will be looking to build momentum on globally agreed goals on the transition away from fossil fuels, tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency.

Lindsay Hooper said: “2024 has seen some terrifying weather – making the reality of climate change ever clearer. At the same time we are in an increasingly polarised world, and that makes international negotiations ever more fraught and challenging.

“International summits such as COP29 provide an important space for diplomacy and dialogue, to build momentum around global ambition and co-operation.

“They also provide a valuable forum for governments to hear from the breadth of voices supporting climate action from young people and scientists through to hard-nosed businesses and investors who understand that this problem won’t just go away without serious action.

“I hope that COP29 will deliver some real steps forward and pave the way for increased climate action.”